The Polls

The various polls are showing the Liberals with a 1% – 15% lead over the Conservatives with the NDP sitting around 17% of the popular vote and the Bloc hovering 12%. What do all the polls tell you? Nothing.

Here's Why

The real campaigning hasn't even begun. Why waste media dollars now, during the most expensive time of the year, when you can get cheaper rates in the time just before the election. Obviously, all of the parties will still be keeping themselves in the public eye, but as we get closer to the holidays it is my belief that the political advertising and headlines will diminish considerably until after Christmas and Boxing "Week". After that, it's going to be "on like Donkey Kong" in terms of wasting advertising budgets on political cock-fighting.

Thoughts on the Polls

• Half of the polls use undecided voters. In other words, they are counting votes in terms of most likely, but not neccessarily certain votes. Some polls also redistribute the undecided votes on a weighted scale.
• There is a large variance in most of the recent polls, showing anywhere from a 1% to a 15% difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives after distribution. Which leads me to beleive that they are a) entirely inaccurate or b) the population is changing their vote on a daily basis.
• The methods used for stratification of the sample taken is not always representative of the situation in that geographical location. For example, 30% of the nation votes for one Political Party but that 30% could only represent "one side of the street" in that neighbourhood. It's a random sample, remember?

Why it's Going to Be a Conservative Minority:

Let's be realistic about advertising in general. If it didn't work, businesses wouldn't spend millions of their profits to continue advertising. It works, face it.

Who Has the Biggest Ad-Budget?

To answer this question, we can look to the contributions made to the party. This information is available from the Elections Canada Website

Political party
BQ
CPC
Green
Liberal
NDP
Return type
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
End period
Sep. 2005
Sep. 2005
Sep. 2005
Sep. 2005
Sep. 2005
Contributions ($)
96,221.91
3,247,131.00
47,418.79
1,062,332.13
720,652.49
Contributors
1,794
32,714
928
6,943
10,698
Associations ($)
955.00
0.00
978.33
117,142.11
953.21
Candidates ($)
1,605.00
0.00
0.00
10,000.00
0.00
Grand total ($)
98,781.91
3,247,131.00
48,397.12
1,189,474.24
721,605.70
Are you noticing a slight difference there? Liberals $1.2 Million, Conservatives $3.2 Million. That’s a lot of money to be able to be spending on ads. The conservatives can create an onslaught of advertising that the Liberals will not be able to compete with.

When your competitor comes out with an advertisement, you had better come out with one too. Otherwise, you’ll be left in the dust. The Liberals will be forced to rely on free types of media to deliver their message whereas the Conservatives will be spoon-feeding their message to the public as they flick channels.

From a strategic perspective, the Liberals should hold on to what little money they have. It makes more sense for them to concentrate on getting the media spotlight right now, so they can fight back with advertising in the new year. The liberals have a history of making last minute comebacks with clever advertising. If they want to survive they’ll have to do it again.

Voter Sentiment

No Vote

The more people I speak with the more people I realize are not going to vote. Simply because they don’t like or understand the options in front of them.

• Stephen Harper creeps them out
• The Liberal Adscam fiasco has pushed them away
• They don’t understand the NDP
• A winter election means people are going to be trying to stay nice and warm in their houses watching election results when they should be voting themselves

To Vote

From a personality perspective, conservative constituents are more likely to vote:

• They are angry with the liberals and want change
• They are big business
• They are staunch conservatives

A good way to put this in perspective is to compare the number of contributors.